Cheltenham favourites: where has the market been strongest?

The numbers, before the story

The Gold Cup returned a net profit of 6.06 points, followed by the Champion Hurdle at 1.89 points. The Champion Chase lost 2.80 points and the Stayers’ Hurdle lost 2.75 points. Across all four races, the combined result was a 2.40-point profit from 21 points staked.

There are 20 races but 21 bets. That is deliberate: the 2026 Gold Cup had two joint favourites, Gaelic Warrior and Jango Baie, both at 11/4. Our rule gives each favourite a one-point win stake. Counting the winning joint favourite while quietly leaving out the losing one would flatter the results.

The table uses winning bets divided by total bets for its strike rate. A favourite won four of the five Gold Cups, but four of the six individual Gold Cup bets won. That makes the betting strike rate 66.67%, rather than 80%.

Result references: 1

Gold Cup: the strongest returns in this sample

A Plus Tard won at 3/1 in 2022, Galopin Des Champs followed at 7/5 in 2023 and 10/11 in 2024, and Gaelic Warrior won as joint favourite at 11/4 in 2026. Those returns covered Galopin Des Champs’ defeat in 2025 and the losing stake on Jango Baie in 2026.

The prices did a lot of the work. A one-point winner at 3/1 adds three points of profit; one at 10/11 adds less than one. The Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle each had a winning favourite in four renewals, but the Gold Cup generated much more profit. A winners-only headline would miss that distinction.

It is a strong historical return over this window. It is not evidence that next year’s favourite is worth backing regardless of price. Change the horses, the opposition or the odds and you have a different proposition.

Result references: 1, 2, 3, 4

Champion Hurdle: plenty of winners, tighter margins

Honeysuckle, Constitution Hill, State Man and Lossiemouth supplied four winning favourites from five bets. That is an 80% strike rate, but the profit was 1.89 points because three of those winners started odds-on. Constitution Hill’s fall in 2025 cost the same one-point stake as any other losing selection.

This is why a high strike rate needs a price beside it. Back five horses at 1/4 and four winners merely return your five points in stakes: four quarter-point profits are cancelled by one losing point. That is an illustration, not the pricing of these five renewals. It shows why ‘usually wins’ and ‘usually offers value’ are separate claims.

Result references: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

Champion Chase and Stayers’: one winner apiece

Energumene was the only winning Champion Chase favourite in the five renewals, scoring at 6/5 in 2023. Shishkin and El Fabiolo were pulled up in their respective years; Jonbon finished second in 2025 and Majborough seventh in 2026. The record is a reminder that jumping is part of a horse’s chance, not an inconvenience to remove from the calculation afterwards.

In the Stayers’ Hurdle, Teahupoo’s 5/4 success in 2024 was the only winning favourite. Klassical Dream was beaten in 2022, while Teahupoo was beaten in 2023, 2025 and 2026. The two races ended with similar losses, but that does not mean the same explanation applies to every defeat. You still have to watch the races and judge the individual performances.

Result references: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

What this comparison can—and cannot—tell you

Five renewals give you a useful recent record, not a dependable probability for the next running. One additional winner can move these percentages sharply. Repeat appearances also matter: several bets here concern the same horses, so these are not twenty entirely different racing situations.

We have compared four championship races, not the entire Festival programme. We have not tested whether backing favourites beats an alternative selection method, or adjusted every horse’s implied probability for the whole market’s margin. ‘Strongest’ here means the best observed record under our stated measure. It does not mean we have proved that one market is more efficient than another.

Use the history to ask better questions. Is this year’s favourite as convincing as its price suggests? How deep is the opposition? What could expose its jumping, stamina or suitability for the conditions? The table starts that conversation; it cannot finish it.

How we calculated the returns

We used the published starting-price favourite in each renewal from 2022 to 2026, staking one point to win on every favourite, including each joint favourite. Winners are settled at bookmaker SP. Losers, fallers and pulled-up horses lose their full point. Profit excludes the returned stake; ROI is net profit divided by total stakes, multiplied by 100.

These are SP results, not Betfair Starting Price, ante-post returns or prices available earlier in the day. The record includes all selected favourites and was checked on 11 November 2026. Each renewal has a linked source in the results log. Teahupoo’s 2023 placing follows the final result after appeal; this has no effect on the win-only calculation.

Result references: 1