15:58 Newmarket

Stellar Vision was caught only in the closing strides over this course and distance in April. Now 4lb lower, back over seven furlongs and trying a hood, could he rediscover that form at 28/1?

By Carl Wright

Stellar Vision makes appeal as a speculative each-way selection in Newmarket’s closing seven-furlong handicap. His recent form leaves him with something to prove, but the return to this course and distance, a lower handicap mark and the introduction of a hood provide reasons to consider him at 28/1. The case rests on whether those changes can help him rediscover the ability he showed here in the spring.

His third over this course and distance on 14 April is the strongest piece of evidence. Racing prominently, he was keen early but still took the lead over a furlong out and was only caught in the closing strides, finishing a neck and a short head behind Startled. That came from a mark of 78, whereas he competes from 74 today. A reproduction of that performance would make him interesting from this rating, particularly if he can conserve more energy through the first half of the race.

His latest eighth at Yarmouth also deserves a little more consideration than the finishing position suggests. He was beaten only around three lengths in a six-furlong handicap, keeping on at the same pace after being switched inside the final furlong. It was still below the level required to win today, but he was considerably closer than on his two disappointing starts in May. The handicapper has dropped him another 2lb since that Yarmouth run.

Returning to seven furlongs looks a sensible move. His sole victory came over this trip at Wolverhampton in January, when he won by three and three-quarter lengths, and his close Newmarket third was also over seven. His last two appearances have been over six furlongs. On that evidence, I would rather see him given the opportunity to find a rhythm over today’s distance than asked to reproduce his best in another sprint.

The first-time hood is another relevant change, given how freely he raced in that April contest. It offers a possible route to a more economical performance, although its effect remains to be seen. Kaiya Fraser retains the ride, and from stall 13 I would like to see him find some cover close enough to the pace to remain involved. Settling matters more to his chance than forcing an early lead.

The good-to-soft ground introduces some uncertainty. His best turf performance came on good going, and although he was not beaten far on good to soft at Yarmouth, that does not establish softer conditions as a particular advantage. More broadly, four consecutive unplaced efforts mean we are backing a revival. The reduced mark helps, but he still has to show that his spring ability remains intact.

Kennington sets a strong standard after winning over this course and distance nine days ago, though he now has a 6lb rise to overcome. George Wickham is another obvious threat following his recent course-and-distance second. Both arrive with stronger recent credentials, which explains their position in the market, but Stellar Vision’s earlier Newmarket effort gives him a credible chance of getting involved if the hood helps him settle.

At 28/1, I think there is enough to justify 0.5Pt each way, preferably with five places. He needs to improve on his recent efforts, but the lower mark and return to a trip that has produced his best performances make that a reasonable possibility. His April run is the benchmark: get back close to that level and he can outrun these odds.

Published selections

Stellar Vision — Newmarket 3:58. Advised price: 28/1. Stake: 0.5pt each way. Result: pending.

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